Pentagon warns of growing Chinese threats, outlines deterrence strategy
The report, titled "Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China 2025" and released on Dec. 23, details rapid modernization across multiple domains within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Key findings indicate that China’s historic military expansion now enables the PLA to threaten US security through nuclear capabilities, maritime operations, conventional precision strikes, cyber operations, and counterspace systems.
China’s nuclear warhead stockpile remained in the low 600s during 2024, with slower growth than previous estimates but projected to exceed 1,000 by 2030. The PLA has likely deployed over 100 solid-propellant intercontinental ballistic missiles in silos, improving rapid-launch readiness. Enhancements continue in early-warning systems, hypersonic weapons, and lower-yield nuclear options.
Cyber threats to US infrastructure surged 150% in 2024, including attacks by Volt Typhoon, a Chinese state-sponsored advanced persistent threat targeting critical sectors such as energy, communications, water, and transportation, potentially enabling disruptions in crises like a Taiwan conflict. The PLA’s satellite network and counterspace capabilities, including anti-satellite missiles and directed-energy weapons, aim to monitor and challenge US forces in orbit.
The PLA Navy remains the largest fleet globally by hull count. The Fujian aircraft carrier completed sea trials, and China conducted dual-carrier exercises for the first time. Plans suggest China could operate nine carriers by 2035, with six in service. These developments align with President Xi Jinping’s goal of building a world-class military by 2049, with milestones focused on Taiwan contingencies by 2027 and broader modernization by 2035.
The Pentagon report stresses that while the US recognizes China’s growing capabilities, its approach is defensive. “We do not seek to strangle, dominate, or humiliate China. Rather, we seek only to deny the ability of any country in the Indo-Pacific to dominate us or our allies,” the report states, emphasizing deterrence through overwhelming strength to preserve peace while pursuing stable relations, fair trade, and diplomatic engagement with Beijing.
Beijing strongly rejected the assessment, accusing the US of hypocrisy given its own status as the world’s largest nuclear power. The Chinese Foreign Ministry described the report as exaggerated, designed to malign China and justify higher US defense spending, while asserting that Washington should take the lead in meaningful nuclear reductions to fulfill disarmament obligations.
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